Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has something to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."