Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.